“Surprise and shine.” – Keynote Thoughts and Predictions
September brings us to the first Keynote of the John Ternus era, and unlike his predecessor Tim Cook, it looks like Ternus is set to unveil some of the products he played a role in overseeing in his previous position as the Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering.
This Keynote is also expected to break the mould of recent September events and not feature an update to the “regular” iPhone, but with that being said, what should we expect to see?
iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max
As has become the norm for Apple’s September events, Apple is set to announce its annual update to iPhone Pro. Externally the iPhone 18 Pro will appear relatively unchanged from the iPhone 17 Pro, though last year’s Cosmic Orange colourway will be replaced by a new Dark Cherry.
The iPhone 18 Pro will use the A20 Pro SoC, and like the M6 unveiled as part of last month’s Mac mini update, it will be built on TSMC’s 2 nm process. The M6 is approximately 18% faster and 30% more efficient than the M5 it replaced, so we should expect a similar level of improvement in the A-series SoC. The A20 Pro will keep the same 12 GB of RAM as the A19 Pro, even as rivals cut back. Last month Google unveiled the base Pixel 11 Pro with 12 GB, down from the 16 GB that Pixel 10 Pro shipped with, along with a $100 price rise.
The iPhone 18 Pro is also set to see its Dynamic Island shrink by roughly a third, with the Face ID illuminator moving beneath the display. The Dynamic Island UI itself will remain relatively unchanged; this is more about how the display looks when the Dynamic Island is inactive.
The iPhone 18 Pro Max specifically is set to be the first iPhone with a variable-aperture camera, improving photos in both low light and bright conditions.
One thing we are still waiting to see is how Apple adjusts the price of the iPhone Pro in light of current component costs, having held off doing so thus far. I expect the iPhone Pro to receive a $100 increase, taking from $1099 to $1199.
iPhone 18 and iPhone Air 2
In a significant shift from recent years, there is set to be no “regular” iPhone announced alongside the Pro models this September. Instead, the iPhone 18 and the next generation iPhone Air are set to be unveiled alongside the iPhone 18e in the spring of next year.
Will Apple acknowledge the change? I doubt it. I expect them to simply talk up how well the iPhone 17 and iPhone Air fit into their newly refreshed iPhone lineup.
The Foldable iPhone
The foldable iPhone, which until now has most often been referred to as the iPhone Fold (as I will refer to it in this post) or the iPhone Ultra, is set to be unveiled by Ternus himself. Much like the iPhone Air last year it comes with a number of compromises.
SoC
The iPhone Fold will use the same A20 chip as the iPhone 18 Pro, and with it 12 GB of RAM. Even though it is the top of the line iPhone, I wouldn’t be surprised if it used a binned version of the SoC like the iPhone Air last year, as it will likely need to be throttled to keep power consumption under control due to it having to drive the large internal display.
Displays
The iPhone Fold is set to have a 5.5 inch external display and a 7.8 inch internal display when unfolded. For comparison, the iPhone 17 and iPad mini displays are 6.3 inches and 8.3 inches respectively. One of the major factors in Apple not releasing a foldable phone before now has been the crease in the internal display. The technology has improved to the point where the crease is barely visible … but form my experience seeing Android foldable phone barely visible is still visible.
Frame
The iPhone Fold’s frame will use the same titanium composition as the iPhone Air, which has proved to be both extremely rigid and lightweight, and the hinge will be made out of aluminium … I expect to see a hinge or screengate before the month is over though.
Biometrics
Due to the size of the components, and the need to support biometrics when using either display, the iPhone Fold will use Touch ID built into the sleep/wake button, as seen on the iPad Air since its fourth generation in 2020, rather than Face ID.
Users will probably find this change annoying at first, as Face ID is all but seamless at this point, but I’m sure they will quickly get into the habit of resting a finger or thumb on the sleep/wake button as they pick the device up.
Cameras
With space at a premium in each half of the device, there won’t be room for a telephoto lens, so the iPhone Fold will feature just two rear cameras, a Wide and an Ultra Wide, like the regular iPhone models.
Wireless Charging
There has been a lot of back and forth on this, and for anyone who docks their phone, how you charge it is arguably as big a change as how you unlock it. Since the iPhone Air supports MagSafe, I expect the iPhone Fold to do the same.
Price
Last year, before the recent component cost increases, I would have expected the iPhone Fold to start between £1799 and £1999, but now I would guess it will be between £1999 and £2199, which might be the biggest compromise of all!
Apple Watch Series 12 and Ultra 4
The Apple Watch lineup is set to get a genuine SoC upgrade, the first since the S9 arrived with the Series 9 and Ultra 2 in 2023. Every generation since has effectively reused the same chip, so a new one is overdue at this point. Other than that, the only exciting update is set to be white ceramic case options … which I will find hard to resist.
The Apple Watch, like the iPhone, escaped the mid-year price increase, and given how little RAM and storage they have, 1 GB and 64 GB respectively, there is a chance the Apple Watch can hold its current pricing.
AirPods 5
The AirPods 5 will feature an updated H3 processor for improved sound quality and reduced latency. Like their predecessor, they will come in versions with and without active noise cancellation.
HomePad
There has been increasing noise around a home device, apparently championed by John Ternus, that has reportedly been ready to ship for over a year but has been held back by the problems with Siri.
The HomePad is essentially an iPad for the home, coming in two variants: one that sits on a speaker stand, and one that is wall mountable.
The HomePad will give users quick access to everything HomeKit, and like the HomePod it will handle Personal Requests when a recognised user is nearby, as well as showing widgets from their iPhone in the way the Mac has been able to since macOS Sonoma in 2023. It is rumoured to manage this not just through Bluetooth between the iPhone and the HomePad, but also by identifying who is nearby using a camera and Apple’s existing voice recognition.
Apple TV
Two things point to an imminent Apple TV update. The first is that it hasn’t been updated since 2022, and still features the same A15 Bionic as the iPhone 13, which was released in September 2021.
The second is price. When Apple raised the cost of most of its hardware in June, siting component price increases, the Apple TV took the biggest hit of the lot. The 64 GB Wi-Fi model went from $129 to $199, and the 128 GB Wi-Fi, Ethernet and Thread model from $149 to $249, increases of roughly 54% and 67% respectively.
This makes it feel like something significant is imminent, but beyond more RAM for an improved Siri experience I am not sure what to expect.
HomePod mini
Like the Apple TV, the HomePod mini hasn’t seen a meaningful update since it launched in November 2020, and still uses the same S5 chip as the Apple Watch Series 5, which was released in September 2019.
Unlike the Apple TV, the HomePod mini only received a modest price increase in June, from $99 to $129, so I expect it to be a simple spec bump that brings it back into line with current Apple Watch SoC availability and the price to remain at $129.
OS 27 Updates
When Apple announced the Mac mini and Mac Studio last month they said that they would launch on 22 September, and come with macOS 27 Golden Gate preinstalled. This means that unless something has gone incredibly wrong, Golden Gate and the rest of the OS 27 updates need to be out before then, with my guess being by Wednesday next week.